On the floor, it was a routine closed-door assembly between Bangladesh’s interim chief and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and the chiefs of the nation’s three armed forces, to debate regulation and order.
However the Could 20 assembly got here amid what a number of officers acquainted with the interior workings of the federal government described to Al Jazeera as an intensifying energy wrestle in Dhaka. Portrayed in social and mainstream media in Bangladesh as a “chilly warfare” between the armed forces and the interim administration, these tensions now threaten the way forward for Yunus’s position, 9 months after he took cost following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League.
Hasina fled to India in August 2024 amid a mass uprising in opposition to her 15-year-long rule, throughout which she was accused of orchestrating extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.
The assembly additionally got here amid rumours that Yunus was contemplating stepping down. Nonetheless, following one other cupboard assembly on Saturday, performing head of the planning ministry, Wahiduddin Mahmud, advised reporters: “The chief adviser [Yunus] is staying with us – he hasn’t stated he’ll resign – and the opposite advisers are additionally staying; we’re right here to hold out the tasks given to us,” following a closed-door assembly of the interim authorities’s advisory council amid ongoing political unrest.
Analysts, nevertheless, say, the standoff isn’t over but.
We unpack the newest tumult in Bangladesh, and what it means for the nation’s fledgling efforts to return to electoral democracy.
Why are tensions mounting between the army and the federal government?
The Bangladesh Military has remained deployed since July 2024, following the mass protests that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Their continued presence was necessitated by the collapse of civilian regulation enforcement throughout the upheaval, together with a nationwide police strike that left many stations deserted and public order in disarray.
Though the police resumed operations in mid-August, the military’s presence has been maintained as a part of a civil-military consensus, due to unrest within the nation.
On Wednesday, Bangladesh’s military chief, Basic Waker-Uz-Zaman, publicly urged that nationwide elections be held by December this yr, warning that extended deployment of the military for civil duties might compromise the nation’s defences.
In accordance with a report by The Every day Star, Basic Waker advised a high-level gathering at Dhaka Cantonment, “Bangladesh wants political stability. That is solely attainable via an elected authorities, not by unelected decision-makers.” The feedback got here throughout a uncommon tackle during which he delivered a 30-minute speech, adopted by greater than an hour of questions and solutions. Officers from throughout the nation and at Bangladeshi UN missions reportedly joined the occasion, each bodily and nearly, in full fight uniform – a present of unity and resolve.
“The military is supposed for defending the nation, not for policing … We should return to barracks after elections,” Waker was quoted in The Every day Star as saying.
His remarks point out a distinction of opinion with the Yunus administration’s said intention of holding elections no sooner than mid-2026, to permit time for political and electoral reforms first, with a view to guarantee a good election.
In accordance with native media studies, Waker can also be strongly against key initiatives being thought-about by the interim authorities. On a proposed humanitarian hall into Myanmar’s Rakhine State, he reportedly stated: “There might be no hall. The sovereignty of Bangladesh isn’t negotiable.” He warned that any such transfer might drag Bangladesh right into a harmful proxy battle. “Solely a political authorities elected by the individuals could make such choices,” he stated, in line with the paper.
The military chief additionally voiced concern about making different choices with out an electoral mandate – together with the potential international administration of Chattogram Port, Bangladesh’s most important seaport, and the launch of Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite tv for pc web service – which he stated might compromise nationwide safety. “The military is not going to enable anybody to compromise our sovereignty,” The Every day Star quoted him as saying.
His remarks got here amid widespread hypothesis – nonetheless unaddressed by both the army or the federal government – that the Yunus administration had tried to take away Basic Waker from his publish final week. Although unconfirmed, the hearsay has dominated public discourse and prompted questions on civil-military relations throughout the transitional interval.
The timing, due to this fact, of Basic Waker’s assertive public assertion – and its emphasis on constitutional course of and nationwide sovereignty – is broadly seen as a sign of rising unease inside the army over the interim authorities’s increasing civilian initiatives, in line with analysts.
Are there tensions with political events as nicely?
Sure. Since its formation on August 8 final yr, the interim authorities has confronted escalating strain from completely different sides. Whereas the primary opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP) insists that nationwide elections should be held by December, the Nationwide Citizen Social gathering (NCP) – a student-led celebration shaped earlier this yr – and a number of other different political teams argue that sweeping reforms and the prosecution of former Awami League (AL) leaders for killings ensuing from the brutal crackdown on student-led protests final yr should precede any election.
Bangladesh’s largest political celebration, the BNP, has launched a wave of protests over different calls for as nicely, together with that its candidate, who misplaced an allegedly rigged mayoral election in Dhaka on February 1, 2020, below the Awami League regime, be reinstated as mayor.
On Thursday, the BNP held a information convention demanding an election by the top of the yr, in addition to the resignation of two pupil advisers and the nationwide safety adviser. The celebration warned that with out these steps, continued cooperation with the Yunus-led administration would turn out to be untenable.
On Saturday, Yunus is anticipated to satisfy with each the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), the most important Islamic political celebration in Bangladesh.
Was Yunus contemplating resigning?
On Saturday, following a cupboard assembly, it was introduced that Yunus is not going to step down as interim chief of Bangladesh.
However amid this rising turbulence, hypothesis had intensified that he might need been making ready to resign. Native media started reporting that he had indicated that he meant to step down and tackle the nation in a televised assertion, throughout a cupboard assembly on Thursday afternoon, following widespread social media chatter.
That night, Nahid Islam – a pupil chief from the July rebellion in opposition to the earlier authorities and now head of the newly shaped Nationwide Citizen Social gathering (NCP) – met Yunus together with two pupil advisers to make an attraction for him to remain on.
After the assembly, Nahid confirmed to BBC Bangla that Yunus was critically contemplating stepping down.
By Friday night (13:00 GMT), sources inside the interim administration advised Al Jazeera that Yunus was nonetheless weighing his choices.
Why would possibly Yunus have wished to resign?
Yunus was understood to be considering resigning due to intensifying political strain, in line with native media studies.
Two advisers quoted within the Samakal newspaper stated Yunus advised cupboard members on Thursday that the political events and different authorities establishments had did not ship on guarantees to cooperate with the transitional authorities to implement state reforms and a peaceable democratic transition because the fall of Hasina’s authorities final yr.
It had turn out to be unattainable to hold out his tasks, he was reported as saying. Stress can also be mounting to carry an election. “The prospect of a good election within the present state of affairs is slim,” he stated. He was involved any election could be interfered with or rigged and he didn’t need to need to take duty for it.
Afterward Thursday night, Yunus met Data Adviser Mahfuj Alam, Native Authorities Adviser Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain and NCP convenor Nahid Islam at his official residence, the Jamuna State Visitor Home in Dhaka.
Chatting with BBC Bangla afterwards, Nahid confirmed Yunus was contemplating resigning and quoted him as saying he felt “held hostage” by protests and political gridlock.
“I can not work like this if you happen to, all of the political events, can not attain a typical floor,” Nahid quoted Yunus as saying. He urged the interim chief to “stay sturdy”, stressing the hopes the general public had pinned on him after the July rebellion that ousted the Awami League authorities.
In the meantime, Yunus’s bold reform agenda is reportedly faltering, with analysts noting that key arms of the state – together with the police and civil paperwork – are more and more slipping past the interim authorities’s management.
One hanging instance amongst many, they are saying, is a proposal to separate the Nationwide Board of Income (NBR), the nation’s authority for tax administration, overseeing the gathering of revenue tax, value-added tax (VAT) and customs duties, into two separate entities – a transfer that the federal government says is aimed toward enhancing effectivity and the integrity of Bangladesh’s tax system. This has been met with sturdy resistance from senior officers of the NBR over fears that skilled income officers might be sidelined.
What does the BNP need?
Chatting with Al Jazeera, BNP chief Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury stated his celebration by no means wished Yunus to resign. “No one requested for his resignation, and we don’t need him to take action,” he said.
“The persons are ready to solid their vote and produce again democracy. They’ve been disadvantaged of this for almost 20 years,” stated Khasru. “We anticipate him to go for a free and honest election and peacefully hand over energy. That’s how he got here in.”
He questioned the delay in setting an election timeline. “What’s the await? That is one thing [about which] a really sturdy dialog is occurring within the nation.”
Khasru stated the BNP needs the administration to maneuver into caretaker mode – with a leaner cupboard and the removing of some controversial figures, notably these with political ambitions or affiliations. “They’ve already floated a political celebration,” he stated, referring to the coed representatives. “Others made partisan statements. These ought to go if you happen to’re critical a few credible election.”
He dismissed any contradiction between reforms and elections, saying each might transfer ahead concurrently. “The place there may be consensus, reforms will be accomplished inside weeks.”
Khasru additionally voiced confidence within the Election Fee and the position of the military in guaranteeing a good vote. “This isn’t the period of Sheikh Hasina,” he remarked, suggesting a extra conducive political surroundings for elections.
On the query of making an attempt former Awami League leaders, he stated judicial processes might proceed in parallel. “The judiciary should do its job – the elected authorities will proceed if extra is required.”
“BNP suffered probably the most below the earlier regime,” he added. “The trials are a nationwide consensus.”
BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed echoed this sentiment in a TV interview on Friday: “If Yunus is personally unable to hold out his duties, the state will discover an alternate.” However he added: “As a globally revered determine, we hope he’ll perceive the state of affairs and announce an election roadmap by December.”
What do different political events need?
NCP’s Senior Joint Convenor Ariful Islam Adeeb rejected the BNP’s narrative, telling Al Jazeera: “All events had been meant to assist the interim authorities after the July rebellion, however the BNP caught to outdated techniques based mostly on muscle energy – that’s the basis of the disaster.”
He urged unity, saying: “BNP and all different events should come collectively for the nationwide curiosity.”
In the meantime, demonstrations and behind-the-scenes conferences continued throughout Dhaka. On Thursday night, high leaders of 5 political events, together with the NCP, attended an emergency assembly on the headquarters of one other Islamic political celebration, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), known as by its chief Mufti Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim.
They urged all “anti-fascist forces” to unite, defend nationwide sovereignty, and assist a reputable election below Yunus after key reforms. A number of of those events, together with BJI, argue that elections should come after key reforms – similar to adopting a proportional voting system and guaranteeing accountability for previous abuses – to forestall any repeat of previous authoritarian practices. They imagine holding elections with out these adjustments would undermine public belief and threat one other disaster.
BJI chief Shafiqur Rahman joined the IAB assembly by way of cellphone and endorsed the decision. On Thursday, he urged Yunus to convene an all-party dialogue to resolve the disaster.
Then, on Friday night time, BJI’s Shafiqur Rahman requested a gathering with Yunus, proposing to convene at 12:00 GMT (6pm native time) on Saturday.
Chatting with Al Jazeera on Friday night time, NCP Joint Convenor Sarwar Tushar stated: “Regardless of the rumours, we imagine Dr Muhammad Yunus is dedicated to his historic duty.
“There may be large expectation – each from the worldwide group and the individuals,” he added.
Whereas acknowledging political divisions, Tushar stated: “If everybody strikes past celebration agendas and focuses on a nationwide agenda, the disaster will be resolved via dialogue.”
What can we anticipate subsequent?
Political analyst Rezaul Karim Rony advised Al Jazeera that discuss of Yunus’s resignation might replicate rising frustration over the shortage of unity inside the transitional setup. “The unity that had shaped across the post-uprising interim authorities seems to be weakening as a result of vested pursuits,” he stated. “The resignation discuss is likely to be a sign underscoring the necessity to rebuild that unity.”
Rony steered that sure authorities appointments might have alienated political events, elevating questions on whether or not some actors have agendas past the official reform mandate. “This could possibly be one motive why the federal government is struggling to achieve broad political cooperation and performance successfully,” he famous.
Rony added: “At this level, advocating for elections might [make the administration] seem politically aligned with the BNP. However in the long run, it must be as much as the individuals to resolve who they need to lead.”
NCP’s Nahid Islam, nevertheless, sees in any other case.
He warned in a Fb publish on Friday night time: “There’s a conspiracy to sabotage the democratic transition and stage one other 1/11-style association.”
The time period “1/11” refers to January 11, 2007, when the military-backed caretaker authorities took management in Bangladesh amid political chaos and dominated for 2 years, suspending democratic processes.
“Bangladesh has repeatedly been divided, nationwide unity destroyed, to maintain the nation weak,” Nahid wrote.
Urging Yunus to remain in workplace and ship on guarantees of reform, justice and voting rights, he stated, “Dr Yunus should resolve all political crises whereas in workplace.”
He additionally outlined NCP’s calls for: a well timed July declaration, elections inside the introduced timeframe (Yunus has repeatedly promised that the election might be held between December 2025 to July 2026), a July Constitution with core reforms earlier than polls, seen justice for the July killings, and a roadmap for a brand new structure via simultaneous elections to a Constituent Meeting and legislature.
In the meantime, public anxiousness is rising. On Friday, the Bangladesh Military issued a Fb alert debunking a faux media launch circulated a day earlier, which falsely used the army’s emblem in what it described as “an obvious try and sow confusion and create rifts” between the armed forces and the general public. “Don’t imagine rumours. Don’t be misled,” the assertion warned.
Because the weekend continues, all eyes are on Muhammad Yunus – and whether or not he can stand agency and forge a brand new consensus to guide the nation via its second transition since final yr’s dramatic rebellion.