Seoul, South Korea – After six hours of emergency martial law, a whole lot of days of protests, violence at a Seoul courtroom and the eventual impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea is now hours away from choosing a new leader within the hope of restoring stability to an unsettled nation.
From 6am to 8pm on Tuesday (21:00 to 11:00 GMT), South Koreans will vote for one among 5 presidential candidates in a race led largely by the opposition Democratic Get together’s Lee Jae-myung. He’s adopted within the polls by the governing Individuals Energy Get together candidate Kim Moon-soo.
The election – involving 44.39 million eligible voters – is anticipated to see both of those two prime contenders exchange Yoon. The expelled former president final week attended his fifth courtroom listening to the place he faces costs of main an riot and abusing energy because of his failed imposition of martial legislation on December 3.
If convicted, Yoon may face a most penalty of life in jail and even the dying sentence.
Participation within the election is predicted to be at an all-time excessive amid the political turmoil ensuing from the temporary imposition of army rule, which nonetheless resonates in each nook of society and has sharply divided the nation alongside political strains. There are those that nonetheless help Yoon and people who vehemently oppose his martial legislation choice.
The Democratic Get together’s Lee is at the moment the clear frontrunner, with Gallup Korea’s newest ballot on Could 28 putting his help at 49 %, in contrast with Individuals Energy Get together Kim’s 36 %, because the favorite to win.
Early voting, which ended on Friday, had the second-highest voter turnout within the nation’s historical past, at 34.74 %, whereas abroad voting from 118 international locations reached a document excessive of 79.5 %.
Lee Jae-myung’s second probability
Within the final presidential election in 2022, Yoon narrowly edged out Lee within the closest presidential contest in South Korea’s historical past.
After his crushing defeat in 2022 to a voting margin of simply 0.73 proportion factors, Lee now has one other probability on the prime workplace, and to redeem his political repute.
A couple of month in the past, South Korea’s Supreme Court docket decided that Lee had unfold falsehoods throughout his 2022 presidential bid in violation of election legislation.
Along with surviving a sequence of bribery costs throughout his tenure as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province, which he claimed had been politically motivated, Lee additionally survived a stabbing assault to his neck throughout a information convention in Busan final 12 months.
Fortuitously for Lee, the courts have agreed to postpone additional hearings of his ongoing trials till after the election.
On the marketing campaign path this time round, Lee addressed his supporters from behind bulletproof glass, with snipers positioned on rooftops, scanning the crowds for potential threats, as counterterrorism models patrolled on foot.
Lee has additionally been joined on his marketing campaign by conservative lawmakers, his former opponents, who’ve publicly supported his run for workplace quite a few instances in the course of the previous month, seeing him as a path again to political stability.
Individuals Energy Get together candidate Kim was served an particularly laborious blow when his parliamentary colleague, Kim Sang-wook, defected from the get together in early Could to hitch Lee’s Democratic Get together.
In keeping with polling information from South Korea’s main media outlet Hankyoreh, solely 55 % of conservative voters who supported Yoon within the 2022 election mentioned they might again the Individuals Energy Get together’s Kim this time round.
Whereas such shifts symbolize the disaster that the mainstream conservative get together is going through after the political fallout from Yoon’s botched martial legislation plan and elimination from workplace, it additionally testifies to Lee’s enchantment to each reasonable and conservative voters.
Future president faces ‘heavy burden’
“The occasions of the martial legislation, riot try and impeachment course of have dealt a heavy blow to our democracy,” mentioned Lim Woon-taek, a sociology professor at Keimyung College and a former member of the Presidential Fee on Coverage Planning.
“So, the brand new president will obtain a heavy burden when assuming the president’s seat,” Lim advised Al Jazeera.
Youth unemployment, social inequality and local weather change have additionally grow to be urgent points that Yoon’s administration did not deal with.
In keeping with current analysis, South Korea’s non-regular employees, together with contract staff and part-timers, accounted for 38 % of all wage and wage employees final 12 months.
Lee has promised to champion business-friendly insurance policies, and focus on funding in analysis and growth and synthetic intelligence, whereas refraining from specializing in divisive social points such because the gender wars.
His stance has shifted significantly from his time transferring up the political ranks when he promoted left-wing concepts, corresponding to a common fundamental revenue.
Occasions on the evening of the declaration of martial legislation on December 3, additionally helped cement Lee’s picture as a political freedom fighter. A former human rights lawyer, Lee was livestreamed scaling the partitions of the Nationwide Meeting because the army surrounded the compound, the place he rallied fellow legislators to vote and strike down Yoon’s choice to mobilise the army.
Amongst Lee’s most central marketing campaign pledges has been his promise to convey to justice these concerned in Yoon’s martial legislation scheme and tighten controls on a future president’s capacity to do the identical. Lee additionally desires to see a constitutional modification that might permit presidents to serve two four-year phrases, a change from the present single-term 5 years.
Whereas Lee’s closest challenger, Kim, has agreed on such insurance policies and made positive to distance himself from Yoon, the previous labour-activist-turned-hardline-conservative has additionally mentioned the previous president’s impeachment went too far.
Trump, tariffs and South Korea’s new path
The election additionally unfolds as United States President Donald Trump has proposed a sequence of tariffs on key South Korean exports corresponding to metal, semiconductors and vehicles.
Within the face of these threats, Lee has promised to stimulate demand and development, whereas Kim has promised to ease enterprise laws. Kim additionally emphasised his plan to carry a right away summit assembly with Trump to debate the tariffs.
Lee, however, has promised a extra pragmatic overseas coverage agenda which might preserve relations with the US administration but additionally prioritise “nationwide pursuits”, corresponding to bridging nearer relations with neighbouring China and Russia.
On North Korea, Lee is decided to ease tensions which have risen to unprecedented heights in recent times, whereas Kim has pledged to construct up the nation’s army functionality to counter Pyongyang, and desires stronger safety help from the US.
Lee has additionally promised to relocate the Nationwide Meeting and the presidential workplace from Seoul to Sejong City, which might be designated because the nation’s new administrative capital, persevering with a technique of city-planning rebalancing that has met a sequence of setbacks in recent times.
One other main subject that Keimyung College’s Lim hopes the longer term chief will focus extra on is the local weather scenario.
“Our nation is taken into account a local weather villain, and we are going to face future restrictions in our exports if we don’t handle the instant results of not holding limits on the quantity of our hazardous outputs,” Lim mentioned.
“The way forward for our nation will actually relaxation on this one query: whether or not the following president will draw out such points just like the earlier administration or face the general public sphere and head straight into the principle points which might be deteriorating our society.”
The outcomes of Tuesday’s vote are anticipated to emerge both late on Tuesday or within the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Within the 2022 election, Yoon was proclaimed the winner at 4:40am the morning after election day.
With Lee the clear frontrunner on this election, the result may very well be evident as early as Tuesday evening.
However enhanced surveillance at polling stations this 12 months because of issues raised about counting errors could also be a think about slowing down any early announcement of the nation’s subsequent president.